Most polls have Biden out front. The average point spread seem to about 6. But this comes down to the Electoral College, not the popular vote. So it doesn’t depend on how many votes. It depends where they come from.

It also depends on what we in Army Intelligence used to call battle indicators, the small hints that make up the details of the big picture and that can give you an edge in predicting victory or defeat. Here are the indicators to look for on Tuesday.

Weather- It matters. Usually bad weather favors Republicans and good weather favors Democrats because bad weather can keep many Democrats, who rely on public transportation to get to the polls, at home. Non highly motivated voters will just pack it in at a sign of inclement weather. Those are more Democrat this time. But the national forecast looks good for Tuesday. Factor in Covid and mail-in and, like so much else this time, it’s a jump ball.

Media- They want Biden to win badly, but they don’t want to look as foolish as they did in 2016. They will be conducting exit polls all day in key battleground states. Listen for their tone. If in the early evening they seem happy and confident, Biden is doing well. But if they seem all business, like they’re hedging their bets, Trump could have an edge.

Down ballot races- These can be bellwethers on the national vote. If one party starts losing their House or Senate incumbents in upsets, that is a very bad sign for the party’s presidential candidate in that state. Even county races in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wi

 

This piece was written by David Kamioner on October 31, 2020. It originally appeared in LifeZette and is used by permission.

 

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