Manhattan Institute fellow Heather Mac Donald said the so-called “Ferguson Effect” is real and has contributed to rising homicide rates by discouraging proactive policing in the wake of public backlash against law enforcement.
In remarks addressing crime trends and policing, Mac Donald argued that eliminating police shootings would not significantly change homicide rates among Black Americans.
“Could get rid of all police shootings of civilians tomorrow, and it would have virtually no effect on the Black Death by homicide rate. Blacks between the ages of 10 and 25 die of gun homicide at 25 times the rate of whites in that age category, and they’re not being killed by the cops. They’re being killed by other blacks, and nobody wants to talk about it.”
Mac Donald criticized media coverage of violent crime, saying that most homicide victims in Black communities do not receive attention.
“We’re supposed to believe that we’re all racist. It’s the media that’s racist. They don’t give a damn about black lives. They don’t give a damn about the dozens of blacks who are killed by homicide every single day. That’s more than all white and Hispanic homicide victims combined, even though, as we said, blacks are 13% of the population, none, virtually none of those black homicide victims gets covered. We are not saying their names because they’re killed by other blacks, and we don’t want to talk about that.”
She said the “Ferguson Effect” describes what happens when police face widespread criticism and reduce proactive enforcement efforts.
“So the Ferguson Effect says, When you demonize the cops, the cops back off. And guess what happens when the cops stop making stops, when they stop looking at hot spots where shootings have happened, and they back off, criminals get emboldened, and more black lives are taken.”
Mac Donald tied the effect to unrest following the 2014 Ferguson riots and the nationwide protests that followed the death of George Floyd in 2020.
“That’s what happened after the Ferguson riots, after the George Floyd, race riots in 2020 we had an even greater meltdown. We had every single American elite institution declaring it was racist to the core, and the cops were, of course, as usual, the one of the main targets of this.”
She pointed to homicide data from 2020 as evidence of the consequences of reduced policing.
“2020 saw the largest one year increase in homicide in this nation’s history. 29% and 1000s more black lives were taken. That’s what happens when you demonize the cops.”
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