CNN data analyst Harry Enten said long-term population trends are increasingly favoring states carried by President Donald Trump, warning that the shifts could have major consequences for Democrats in future elections if they continue through the next census.
Enten outlined the trends while reviewing population estimates that extend through mid-2025 and compare growth and migration patterns since the 2020 census.
He said the data shows a clear divergence between states that supported Trump in 2024 and those won by Kamala Harris.
“Today, I wanted to take a look at some long term population trends that really should set off a flashing red siren to Democrats nationwide, while bringing a big smile to the faces of Republicans nationwide,” Enten said.
“Why do I say that? Because take a look at the big population gainers versus the last census back in 2020, according to the latest population estimates that take into account the population mid 2025 look at this, the biggest population growth this decade, all five of the states, states that Donald Trump, Donald John Trump won. Donald John Trump won in 2024 Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and, of course, the great state of Arizona.”
Enten said those five states have posted the largest population gains since the 2020 census, placing them at the top of growth rankings nationwide.
“These were the biggest gainers, the biggest gainers in terms of population, compared to the 2020, census,” he said.
He added that the growth was not occurring in isolation but was being driven by residents leaving traditionally Democratic states.
“Now it’s not just a red state boom. This is what we’re looking at. We’re looking at a red state boom here, but it is not just a red state boom. We’re also looking at what I would dare call a blue state depression,” Enten said.
Enten identified the states experiencing the highest levels of domestic out-migration, noting they all supported Harris in 2024.
“Take a look here, the lowest domestic net migration this decade, all five of the states, states that were won by Kamala Harris in 2024 look at this, California. Harris’s home state, New York, where I’m coming from, coming from right now. Of course, Illinois, New Jersey, and of course, the great Commonwealth of Massachusetts, which is a bastion of blue liberalism,” he said.
“These are the states that folks in the United States are moving away from and into the red states, which is propelling a red state boom,” Enten added.
According to Enten, if the current population trends hold through the 2030 census, the political impact could be significant due to how House seats are apportioned.
“Because take a look here, if in fact, the 2025 population shifts hold for the 2030 census. Look at this. Look at the house the House seat shifts by state,” he said.
“States that Kamala Harris won, they would lose, they would lose seven seats in the United States House of Representatives. The states that Donald Trump won in 2024 they would gain, they would gain seven seats,” Enten said.
He explained that those shifts would also affect the Electoral College, since each state’s electoral votes are tied to its House delegation and two Senate seats.
“So what would this mean for the House of Representatives? Well, if you remember back in 2024 right? It was all about, we were talking about the blue wall if Kamala Harris could win the baseline democratic states and then add in the blue wall states of Michigan, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, she would get to 270 electoral votes,” Enten said.
Enten said applying current population estimates to future elections would change that math.
“But if, all of a sudden, we in fact, have applying the 2025 estimates, the population estimates, to the Electoral College, the blue states, plus the blue wall of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, would no longer be enough,” he said.
“Under the current estimates, you get to exactly 270 electoral votes, the minimum needed to win the electoral college, if in fact, you apply the 2025 estimates, look at that, you would only get to 263 electoral votes if you were a Democrat, which would mean a Republican victory,” Enten said.
While noting that reapportionment will not occur until after the 2030 census, Enten said the trend lines are already clear.
“What we can say so far is we got a red state boom going on, a blue state depression going on, people moving from the blue states to the red states,” he said.
“And if it holds for 2030, well, it would make the Democratic nominee for president’s job of winning the Electoral College that much more difficult.”
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