A special election in Florida drew national attention Tuesday night after Democratic candidate Emily Gregory defeated Republican Jon Maples in a State House race covering a district that includes Mar-a-Lago, prompting analysis from CNN’s senior data analyst Harry Enten about potential national implications.
Gregory secured a two-point victory in a district that President Donald Trump carried by double digits in the 2024 presidential election. Maples had received President Trump’s “complete and total endorsement” on Truth Social the night before Election Day.
During an appearance on “Erin Burnett OutFront,” Enten described [1] the outcome as part of a larger pattern seen in recent elections.
“In a district that [President] Donald Trump won by 11 points. That is a massive shift, right?” Enten said.
“That is a double-digit shift towards the Democrat.”
Enten added that the results reflect a trend beyond South Florida.
“And what I will say, what is so important, It is happening now in Donald Trump’s backyard, but it has been happening across the country. We have seen these massive shifts in these special elections,” he said.
“I looked at all of them. So far to date, the state legislative, the federal special elections.”
Host Erin Burnett asked for clarification on the scope of the data.
“No matter what it’s for? Any special election?” Burnett asked.
“Correct. For state legislative or federal for Congress,” Enten responded.
“And what we’ve seen so far is a shift to the Democrats on average of 12 points. We have seen a shift of 12 points from the Kamala Harris baseline from what we saw. … It’s emblematic, Erin, of what we’ve seen nationwide.”
The results in Florida come amid a series of special elections in which Democrats have either won or outperformed expectations in districts that President Trump carried in 2024.
These races have taken place in multiple states, including Florida, Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Pennsylvania.
Democrats have also shown stronger-than-expected performance in contests where they did not ultimately win, such as the December 2025 race for Tennessee’s Seventh Congressional District.
Enten said historical patterns suggest that performance in special elections can indicate trends for upcoming midterm elections.
“There’s a reason we’re talking about this, and it’s not just because it’s in Donald Trump’s backyard, though. That’s part of the reason why. It is because, historically speaking, special elections have forecasted what will happen in the midterm elections,” he said.
Enten referenced past election cycles to support the claim.
“I went all the way back since I was in high school, back to the 2005-2006 cycle. And every single time that a party outperformed the presidential baseline in the next midterm election, what we saw was five out of five times that party went on to win the U.S.House of Representatives,” he said.
He concluded that the Florida result could have broader implications.
“So, what is happening right now in Mar-a-Lago is unlikely to stay at Mar-a-Lago. It is likely to expand nationwide and to expand in the midterm elections as well,” Enten said.
Before speaking with Enten, Burnett interviewed Gregory while the election results were still being finalized. Gregory said her campaign focused on local concerns.
“We’re feeling confident. What we’re confident in is that we were talking about the right issues, and we were knocking all of the doors and doing all of the things to get in front of voters and really hear their concerns,” Gregory said.
“And we heard over and over again, property, insurance, health care and education. And that’s what we focused on. And we’re feeling hopeful for tonight.”
Gregory said President Trump’s presence in the district was not central to her campaign.
“For me, not so much. My opponent put it front and center, and I focused on the issues that matter most to Florida families,” she said.
She also addressed economic concerns raised by voters.
“Everyone is feeling that affordability crisis, and the last thing that Florida families needed when they’re struggling is $4 gas,” Gregory said.
“So, that is what I spoke about, and that is what I talked to voters about, so it [Trump’s presence] wasn’t as much a factor for me, but perhaps my opponent focused on it.”
Burnett noted that President Trump would be among Gregory’s constituents and asked if she had a message for him.
“I would be happy to have a conversation. And you know, all 180,000 residents of District 87 are my priority if I’m so lucky to serve, so I will put them all with equal weight,” Gregory said.
Gregory also responded to a question about the president’s war on Iran and its impact on her family.
“We as a family are very concerned about another endless war. Of course, it’s outside the scope of the State House, but it does have personal ramifications for my family. So, I pray for our troops, and I pray for our family, and I hope a resolution comes sooner rather than later,” she said.
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