California’s contest for governor has taken another sharp turn after a new survey showed [1] Democrat Xavier Becerra’s once commanding lead over Republican Steve Hilton shrinking to 5.6 points. With 14.1% of voters undecided, the race remains unsettled.
2026 California Governor
Xavier Becerra: 45.7%
Steve Hilton: 40.1%David Wolfson poll | 10/1-10/2 https://t.co/nnl8sdDaIR
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 5, 2026 [2]
The poll was commissioned by Hilton’s campaign and conducted by pollster David Wolfson on Oct. 1 and Oct. 2, immediately after the candidates’ first debate. It surveyed 1,020 California voters.
Becerra received 45.7% support in the survey, while Hilton drew 40.1%. Another 14.1% of respondents said they remained undecided, leaving nearly 1 in 7 voters still available in a race that had previously appeared far less competitive.
An earlier poll commissioned by Hilton had Becerra leading 52% to 37%, according to a survey previously reported by the Post. That advantage of 15 points has now collapsed to less than six points.
The movement came from both directions. Becerra’s support dropped 6.3 percentage points from the earlier poll, while Hilton gained 3.1 points, creating a 9.4-point shift in the margin between the two candidates.
The survey also delivered a bleak assessment of California’s direction. A substantial 58.8% of voters said the state is headed in the wrong direction, while only 28.1% said California is moving in the right direction.
Another 13.1% said they were unsure about the state’s direction. Those numbers are not exactly a glowing review, and the sour outlook could provide an opening for Hilton as he campaigns on frustration with high costs and Democratic leadership.
Becerra, however, maintained a clear advantage when undecided respondents were pressed to make a choice. Among those voters, 72.5% leaned toward Becerra, while 27.5% leaned toward Hilton.
The results suggest that Becerra could still benefit substantially if those undecided voters eventually follow their stated leanings. At the same time, their initial refusal to select either candidate keeps a sizable portion of the electorate formally uncommitted.
Neither candidate emerged from the survey with particularly strong personal ratings. Becerra was viewed favorably by 44.1% of respondents and unfavorably by 45.3%, placing his unfavorable rating slightly above his favorable number.
Hilton’s ratings were weaker overall, with 35.5% viewing him favorably and 50.7% viewing him unfavorably. The figures show that the tightening contest has not translated into broad personal popularity for either candidate.
The poll followed a highly watched Oct. 1 debate between Becerra and Hilton. About 11.2% of respondents said they watched all or nearly all of the debate on CNN, while another 9.5% said they watched part of it.
Nearly 20% said they saw clips or highlights online or in news coverage. Another 19.9% said they followed coverage of the debate without watching the event itself, giving the contest a broader reach beyond its direct television audience.
This was a total SMACKDOWN.
Far-left Democrat Xavier Becerra just got completely EXPOSED by Republican Steve Hilton for losing track of hundreds of thousands of migrant children during his time as HHS Secretary.
Becerra just stood there looking nervous as Hilton laid it all out. It was absolutely brutal to watch.
HILTON: “When you were HHS Secretary, you were responsible for 479,000 unaccompanied migrant children and for their welfare in camps that you ran.”
“You sent them because you dismantled the vetting that should have made sure that they were with a safe, protective family or sponsor.”
“You sent thousands of young children directly into the clutches of child sex and labor traffickers, hundreds of thousands of children that you were responsible for are still missing today, 100,000 of them are under ten years old.”
When Becerra attempted to play off the narrative as just another “Trump talking point,” Hilton landed his final haymaker:
HILTON: “It was the New York Times — and they won a Pulitzer Prize for it!”
There’s just no coming back from that. Becerra knew it was over.
— Overton (@overton_news) October 1, 2026 [3]
The latest results depart significantly from several recent public polls that showed Becerra holding a much wider lead. They also arrived as Hilton accused Becerra of lying about his immigrant background, adding another point of conflict to the tightening campaign.
“Unlike Becerra (because I’ve been out there listening to the people), I know Becerra’s policies have destroyed the California Dream. My plans will restore it,” Hilton wrote on X.
Hilton followed with another attack focused directly on the candidates’ family backgrounds. “Unlike Xavier Becerra, I am an immigrant. Unlike Xavier Becerra, my father was an immigrant. My stepfather, too. My whole family,” he added.
Unlike Xavier Becerra, I am an immigrant.
Unlike Xavier Becerra, my father was an immigrant. My stepfather too. My whole family.
Unlike Becerra (because I’ve been out there listening to the people), I know Becerra’s policies have destroyed the California Dream. My plans will restore it.
– More money in your pocket: Your first $150k tax free, $3.00 gas, $73 registration for your car or truck.
– A home you can afford to buy: Cut government fees and regulations on new homes by $150k.
– Relief for small business owners: Scrap $800 small business tax, stop FUTA taxes, end unfair competition from street vendors, end PAGA lawsuits.Xavier Becerra offers NOTHING. Because he is a smug, arrogant, machine politician mediocrity who is taking you for granted. Send him a message: ENOUGH IS ENOUGH.
We are voting for CHANGE this year. ✊☀️
— Steve Hilton (@SteveHiltonx) October 4, 2026 [4]
Becerra has previously said that his parents moved to the United States as immigrants