CNN delivered Democrats a sobering dose of electoral arithmetic during a recent segment on CNN News Central. Chief data analyst Harry Enten examined [1] polling in competitive U.S. Senate races ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Enten focused on current polling averages and compared them with a recurring pattern from recent election cycles. Specifically, he reviewed how Republican Senate candidates performed against final polling averages in states carried by President Donald Trump.
A graphic displayed during the segment covered elections held from 2018 through 2024. Across those cycles, Republican candidates outperformed final Senate polling averages by an average of 4.1 percentage points in states Trump won.
The pattern looked far different in states Trump lost. Republican candidates outperformed the final Senate polling averages in those states by an average of just 0.2 points.
Those calculations included races with at least two polls. Enten said the larger Republican advantage has appeared consistently during recent cycles and has been concentrated in states carried by Trump.
The latest polling averages, however, currently give Democrats narrow advantages across several competitive races. Some of those contests are in states that Trump carried by double digits during the 2024 election.
Enten’s polling aggregate showed Kansas tied, while Democrats led by one point in Iowa. Democrats also held leads of two points in Maine, three points in Texas, three points in Michigan, and four points in Ohio.
Alaska presented another close contest in the aggregate. There, the Democratic Party held an advantage of approximately three points.
Democrats would need to win a majority of these contests to capture control of the Senate. If the current polling averages matched the results on Election Day, Enten said Democrats would gain control.
That favorable snapshot comes with an obvious catch for Democrats. Many of the margins shown in the current polling averages fall within typical polling error ranges.
Enten then tested what the Senate picture would look like if the historical 4.1-point Republican outperformance repeated in states Trump won. Applying that shift dramatically changed the apparent direction of several races.
CNN: The GOP outperform senate polls in Trump states by an average of 4.1 points
If that counties
Ohio Dem +4 -> GOP +0.1
Michigan Dem +3 -> GOP +1
Alaska Dem +3 -> GOP +1
Texas Dem +3 -> GOP +1
Iowa Dem +1 -> GOP +3
Kansas Tied -> GOP +4 https://t.co/jfowTCbPI4— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 23, 2026 [2]
In Ohio, a four-point Democratic Party lead would become a Republican edge of 0.1 points. Michigan would move from a three-point Democratic Party lead to a Republican edge of one point.
The same adjustment would reverse the polling advantage in Alaska and Texas. Democratic Party leads of three points in each state would become Republican advantages of one point.
Iowa would also move decisively under that scenario. A Democratic Party lead of one point would turn into a Republican edge of three points.
Kansas, currently tied in the aggregate presented by Enten, would shift further toward Republicans. The historical adjustment would give the Republican candidate a four-point advantage.
Under that scenario, Republicans would retain control of the Senate by a margin of 52 seats to 48. The party would hold seats in Michigan, Ohio, Texas, and Alaska.
Enten emphasized that Democrats still lead in the current polling averages. Those numbers would hand them Senate control if they accurately reflected the eventual Election Day results.
At the same time, the recent history examined by Enten offers Democrats no room for premature celebration. Republican candidates have repeatedly exceeded final polling averages in states won by Trump.
Enten also pointed to an average error rate of roughly 3.7 points in recent close Senate contests. Several of the current races sit within that range, leaving the polling picture considerably less comfortable for Democrats than the raw leads might suggest.
The central question is whether polling accuracy will be different during the 2026 cycle. For now, Democrats have the leads, but the historical numbers presented by CNN show why those leads may not be the cushion they appear to be.