A new poll offers encouraging news for Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, placing him narrowly ahead of Democrat James Talarico. The result from Quantus Insights suggests Paxton may be gaining ground as early voting approaches, as reported [1] by Townhall.
The advantage is hardly overwhelming, but it puts Paxton in front of his competition. Quantus Insights gives him an edge of half a point over Talarico, making the contest close while still delivering a welcome result for the Republican.
Paxton’s support among Republican voters is one of the most striking figures in the poll. According to the data, 87% of Republicans have committed to voting for Paxton, while 7% say they are backing Talarico.
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS TEXAS SENATE POLL | October 13, 2026
Our latest survey finds Ken Paxton and James Talarico essentially tied in Texas’ U.S. Senate race, with 23 days remaining until Election Day at the close of fieldwork.
U.S. Senate Ballot
Ken Paxton (R): 47.2%
James Talarico (D): 46.7%
⚪️ Ted Brown (L): 2.2%
⚪️ Undecided: 3.9%
— Paxton +0.5. Neither candidate reaches 50%, with Brown’s support and the undecided share totaling 6.1%.
––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Demographic Results:
Gender
• Women: Talarico +10
• Men: Paxton +12
Age
• 18–29: Talarico +33
• 30–44: Talarico +13
• 45–64: Paxton +4
• 65+: Paxton +17
Race / Ethnicity
• White: Paxton +23
• Hispanic: Talarico +18
• Black: Talarico +72Party
• Republicans: Paxton 87% /Talarico 7%
• Democrats: Talarico 95% / Paxton 2%
• Independents: Talarico 52% / Paxton 37%Geography
• Urban: Talarico +26
• Suburban: Paxton 50% / Talarico 45%
• Rural: Paxton +34
––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Candidate Favorability
• Paxton: 45.8% favorable / 51.8% unfavorable
• Talarico: 48.6% favorable / 46.8% unfavorableIn Step With Texas?
We asked whether each candidate’s views and values are in line with most Texans or out of step:
• Paxton: 48.6% in line / 47.7% out of step
• Talarico: 45.5% in line / 48.3% out of step
Social-Circle Vote Perception
Who do voters think their friends, family, coworkers, and neighbors will support?
• Mostly or almost all Paxton: 43.1%
• Mostly or almost all Talarico: 41.7%
• About evenly split: 4.5%
• Not sure: 10.6%
— Paxton +1.4 in perceived support.
2024 Presidential Vote Recall
• Trump: 51.5%
• Harris: 41.1%
— Trump +10.4.
––––––––––––––––––––––––––
October 9–11, 2026 · 854 full sample · 839 voters-only ballot base · MoE ±3.6 percentage points
Full report and methodology:
quantusinsights [dot] org/polling— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) October 13, 2026 [2]
That level of Republican commitment gives Paxton a substantial base of support. The poll also says the remaining 8% could move toward Paxton, a shift that could expand his current advantage over Talarico.
The geographic breakdown provides more good news for Paxton. His strongest showings come among suburban and rural voters, two groups that are helping place him ahead in the closely watched contest.
In suburban Texas, Paxton holds a one-point boost over Talarico. The margin is not enormous, but it adds to the broader picture of a Republican candidate maintaining a narrow statewide advantage.
The rural numbers are considerably stronger for Paxton. Quantus Insights shows him with a 34 point leap over Talarico in rural areas, giving the Republican his most substantial geographic advantage cited in the poll.
That rural strength stands apart from the much tighter suburban result. Together, the two geographic findings show Paxton ahead in the suburban category while building a far wider cushion among rural voters.
The poll’s sample also provides additional context that favors Paxton. The sample was just +10 for Trump in 2024, even though Trump won Texas by nearly 14 points.
That difference makes the result look even more encouraging for Paxton within the terms presented by the poll. Even with a sample showing a smaller Trump advantage than his nearly 14-point statewide victory, Paxton still comes out ahead of Talarico.
There is still a notable group of voters who have not settled behind either major candidate. Undecided voters and those supporting third-party options currently make up more than 6% of the electorate, according to the poll.
That portion of the electorate remains significant in a race where the current margin between Paxton and Talarico is only half a point. With the contest this close, the voters outside the two leading camps remain part of the overall picture.
Paxton nevertheless enters the final stretch before early voting with several favorable findings. He has 87% commitment among Republicans, an advantage in suburban Texas, and a commanding 34-point rural leap over his Democrat opponent.
Talarico does draw support from 7% of Republicans, according to Quantus Insights. Yet that figure remains far below Paxton’s level of commitment within the party, another encouraging sign for the Republican as voting gets closer.
Only one week remains until early voting opens in Texas. With Paxton narrowly leading overall and posting strong results among key geographic groups, the latest poll makes his path to victory look clearer, even with undecided and third-party voters still in the mix.