A new Fox News poll finds Republican nominee Ken Paxton and Democratic Party nominee James Talarico locked in a dead heat among likely Texas voters. Each candidate received 49% support in the closely watched U.S. Senate contest.
The result marks a notable change from the network’s September survey. That earlier poll showed Talarico holding a 51% to 49% advantage over Paxton among likely voters, giving the Democrat a two-point edge that has now disappeared [1].
Fox News conducted the October poll from October 15 through October 19. The survey included 2,011 registered voters, with 1,398 of those respondents identified as likely voters.
The margin of sampling error for the likely voter subsample was plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. Within that margin, the latest numbers leave neither nominee with an advantage and show Paxton gaining ground from the network’s previous survey.
The movement from Talarico’s two-point lead to a tie was associated with gains for Paxton among several important voting groups. Those groups included conservatives, rural voters, suburban women, and Republicans who supported Cornyn during the primary.
Paxton’s support increased by one point among both men and women compared with the September Fox News poll. At the same time, Talarico’s support declined by one point among men and two points among women.
A two-point lead has disappeared in the Texas Senate race, with new Fox News polling showing Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton now tied.
@BillHemmer breaks down the numbers, noting Talarico held a slight advantage just a month ago.
With a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points, Hemmer says the race could come down to which campaign can turn out more voters.
Download the FOX News app for the latest polling and updates ahead of the midterm elections: https://t.co/ISpW9Fc0R3
— Fox News (@FoxNews) October 22, 2026 [2]
Talarico continues to hold commanding advantages with several parts of the electorate. He leads Paxton by 65 points among Black voters, 29 points among urban voters, and 28 points among voters under age 30.
The Democrat also holds a 23-point advantage among women with a college degree. Hispanic voters favor Talarico by a 64% to 34% margin, according to the Fox News findings.
Paxton, meanwhile, posts wide leads among several groups central to his support. He leads by 52 points among White evangelical Christians and by 32 points among White men without a college degree.
The Republican nominee also leads by 21 points among rural voters. Among voters age 65 and older, Paxton holds an 18-point advantage over Talarico.
Party support is stronger for Talarico among Democrats than it is for Paxton among Republicans. Talarico receives support from 98% of Democrats, while Paxton receives support from 90% of Republicans.
Other recent polling also shows the Texas race tightening after Talarico posted larger advantages in earlier surveys. A University of Houston Hobby School poll of 2,000 likely voters placed Talarico at 48% and Paxton at 46%.
In that University of Houston survey, 3% of likely voters supported Libertarian Ted Brown. Another 3% remained undecided, leaving the two major party nominees separated by two points.
An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey questioned 1,000 likely voters and produced different results depending on how undecided respondents were treated. Talarico registered between 48% and 49%, while Paxton received between 46% and 48%.
Polls from CBS News/YouGov and ActiVote each found Talarico leading Paxton by 51% to 49%. A Marist survey showed another narrow contest, with Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 45%.
Polling aggregates reflect the same compressed race. The RealClearPolitics average places Talarico approximately 1.5 points ahead of Paxton, a smaller margin than those recorded by several surveys earlier in the campaign.
During mid to late September, multiple polls showed Talarico leading by four to six points. The more recent Fox News tie, along with other narrow results, indicates that the margin has compressed in subsequent surveys.
The October Fox News poll therefore presents a race that has moved from a modest Talarico advantage to an even split. With both nominees sitting at 49%, Paxton has erased the Democrat’s September lead in the network’s polling.