Finally, the noise of politics, polls, and pundits will soon retreat into a brief silence. November 3 is the midterm election that has dominated conversation all year, and like every cycle, the refrain is that “this will be the one that means everything.” It may determine the trajectory of America. That claim is often overstated, but this cycle carries more weight than most: the choices will sketch a picture of the nation’s direction. Is it a socialist America or a free capitalist society? That is what is on the ballot Tuesday.
The Democratic Socialists of America have made their voices heard in primaries in places such as New York City and Colorado. A pro-Palestinian candidate aligned with the socialists is ahead in the Michigan Senate race today, and many feel the results will signal the future course of the country. The contrast between expansive government programs and market-oriented governance sits at the center of these contests.
In January, I wrote an article [1] on the history of midterm elections. History shows that the party opposite the president almost always loses seats in the House of Representatives, typically around 25. Republicans did all they could in a few states to gerrymander an estimated 7–10 House seats. The results on Tuesday will prove whether that effort was enough. Recent analysis indicates the gains have been smaller than hoped in places like Texas and Florida as the political environment shifted.
The narrow Republican majority in the House would take a miracle to hold at this point, and the Senate is primed to flip as well. Even Donald Trump has said a Democratic House would mean endless investigations and ultimately lead to more impeachments. At one rally, he told supporters, “Pretend I’m running, please, because I am on the ballot. And if we don’t win, they’ll end up impeaching me.” That warning should motivate voters if nothing else will.
The Democratic ceiling for flipping seats in the House appears to be about 35, but they will never win that many. I believe Democrats will flip 20–21 seats and win the majority 226–209. Hakeem Jeffries will be the new Speaker of the House. He has said Democrats are “on the verge of taking back control of the House,” and a win would make him the first Black Speaker. Republicans will lose power in committees, and the investigations will begin. More than likely, a Democrat in the House will file articles of impeachment for Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth on that day.
Do not forget the continuing resolution that ends December 11. Congress passed, and the president signed a stopgap that funds the government at current levels through that date, delaying full fiscal-year negotiations until the lame-duck session. If Republicans lose the House, all of the leverage for 2027 budget appropriations and keeping the government open from December 11 to January 3—when the new Congress is sworn in—is lost. Democrats would not hesitate to shut down the government for only three weeks to gain that control.
The Senate races and control of that body remain a toss-up. Republicans are always undervalued in polls by 4–6 percent, so believing there will be a blue wave is far from reality. The Senate will come down to Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, and Texas for potential Democratic flips. Michigan, with Republican Mike Rogers against Abdul El-Sayed, is even, but that would represent a flip for the GOP; Michigan has not elected a Republican senator since 1994. North Carolina is lost for the Republicans, with Democrat Roy Cooper comfortably leading.
The Senate is currently 53 GOP, 45 Democrats, and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats. The North Carolina Democratic win takes that GOP number to 52. So Talarico–Paxton in Texas, Husted–Brown in Ohio, Hinson–Turek in Iowa, and Sullivan–Peltola in Alaska are the midterm Senate battlegrounds. I put the over/under at 51, and the GOP will hold power.
Even with the GOP holding power, uniparty Majority Leader John Thune continuing to block the Trump administration, and with Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins still there, Americans should not expect much in the way of help for Donald Trump after November 3, 2026. It will be lame-duck season for Trump’s final two years.
What do I know? Turnout is key to these races in the final days. The picture I just painted can be wrong, but that is up to the voters. It is up to the political parties and who best gets their base out to vote. The last two midterms had roughly 46 percent and 49 percent voter turnout of the voting-eligible population. That represents every registered voter—Democrat, Republican, and Independent. A few votes make a difference, and yours will too.
Donald Trump is holding more than 30 rallies in the last four weeks of this election cycle. He is visiting states and cities that one would think are secure Republican seats, but he is energizing the base in those places for a reason—it should be obvious. Get out and vote.
In June, I wrote [2] about Republican voter apathy in every election, special elections and primaries, since last November. Do not ‘RIG’ this election yourself by not voting.
Socialism vs. Freedom and Liberty…that is what Tuesday will reveal