URL: https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2026/10/29/hasty-us-exit-from-europe-could-drive-allies-away-from-american-arms-rand-says/
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A new RAND study warns that a rapid, uncoordinated U.S. military drawdown from Europe could push major NATO allies away from American weapons over time, damaging the U.S. defense industrial base. The warning centers less on whether Washington reduces forces than on how it carries out the pullback.
Released Wednesday, “Anticipating Allies’ Responses to U.S. Retrenchment from Europe” examines France, Germany, Poland and the U.K. It considers limited retrenchment, meaning reductions in American forces and commitments that stop short of a full NATO departure.
The study draws from Cold War precedents, allied government documents, public debate and interviews with 51 officials and experts in the four countries. Most interviews were conducted between April and November 2025, and the authors cautioned that their findings apply only to those allies.
The report found that allies distinguish sharply between an orderly withdrawal coordinated over time and a sudden move without consultation. The latter could create major military capability gaps and potentially embolden Russia to attack a NATO member, according to the authors.
RAND recommends that Washington carry out larger force reductions through a long term timeline developed with allies. Such an approach could help sustain allied military spending even as those commitments become more difficult to sell domestically.
The report weighs those options against NATO 3.0, the alliance concept presented in February by Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby. The concept calls for Europe to assume primary responsibility for its conventional defense while the United States shifts resources toward the Western Hemisphere and Pacific.
The Pentagon has already started reducing the American footprint in Europe. About 80,000 U.S. troops were stationed across roughly 30 bases there as of 2025, according to congressional testimony from the head of U.S. European Command cited by RAND.
In May, the Pentagon announced that approximately 5,000 troops would leave Germany. The United States reduced the forces it would make available to NATO during a crisis in June, while a broader review of American forces in Europe remains underway.
Defense ministers from France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the U.K. said Monday that Europe “must assume greater responsibility for its own security.” Their joint statement also described the United States as “an indispensable Ally.”
British interviewees told RAND that a sudden withdrawal would initially leave allies with little choice but to purchase available equipment, often from American suppliers, to close urgent gaps. Over time, however, damaged trust could steer buyers toward European or domestically produced alternatives.
In Britain, interviewees said such a departure would “accelerate the UK’s reorientation away from U.S. defense equipment toward sovereign or European alternatives.” RAND’s authors expect Germany, and possibly Poland, could reach a similar conclusion.
Germany has purchased American arms partly to help keep Washington committed to Europe. If a rapid withdrawal showed that strategy had failed, Berlin “may not see a benefit to continuing to privilege U.S. firms for arms sales or other deals,” the authors wrote.
The United States supplied 58% of the major weapons imported by European NATO members from 2021 through 2025, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. That was down from 64% during the institute’s previous five year count.
France is already the ally most committed to reducing dependence on the United States, so RAND expects a sudden pullout would have little effect on its American arms purchases. French officials nevertheless said their forces would still rely on U.S. capabilities during wartime, including intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, logistics, fighter aircraft, air and missile defense, and command and control.
RAND also examined a scenario in which Washington normalized relations with Russia while the Ukraine war continued without addressing European security concerns. Allies might then restrict intelligence sharing and joint military planning because of fears that information could reach Moscow.
Still, the authors concluded that none of the four allies would align with Russia or China on security under any scenario examined. They wrote that fears of allies moving toward Russia as American forces withdraw are “overblown.”
A limited pullback would more likely prompt European allies to spend more and cooperate more closely, according to RAND. All four countries have committed to NATO’s goal of spending at least 3.5% of GDP on core defense by 2035.
Poland has more than doubled defense spending as a share of GDP since 2014 and is targeting 5% this year. Germany plans to spend €649 billion over five years, raising military spending from 2.4% of GDP in 2025 to 3.5% by 2029.
RAND warned against using troop deployments to reward or punish individual allies. Poland saw a planned deployment of roughly 4,000 soldiers canceled in May before President Donald Trump later pledged 5,000 troops at an unspecified date.
The report said NATO 3.0 offers a vision for reducing the American role and reallocating resources, but lacks a concrete long term plan. RAND urged the administration to establish predictable peacetime and wartime troop commitments with allied participation rather than treating forces as political bargaining chips.
A Pentagon document seen by Reuters in August said the Europe review was due to provide War Secretary Pete Hegseth at least four troop options by Nov. 6. The full review is due in December, leaving the central question of a durable plan unresolved.