The United States has experienced a net loss of migrants for the first time in roughly 50 years, a shift that commentator Will Cain said marks a major reversal in long-standing immigration trends and has produced measurable security and economic effects.

Cain discussed the change while citing new migration estimates and data from the Department of Homeland Security, pointing to what he described as a historic break from decades of net positive migration regardless of which party controlled the White House.

“The US has been gaining more immigrants than it lost,” Cain said.

“This chart shows net migration over time under several different administrations, no matter who was the president, the United States had a net positive migration of immigrants, and you can see the spike during the years of the Biden presidency.”

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Cain said that pattern shifted after President Trump returned to office, with new data showing a net decline in the number of migrants living in the country.

“Now that is changing under President Trump,” Cain said.

“New estimates show the United States lost more immigrants than it gained in 2025 and that is the first time it’s happened in about a half a century, in part because of self deportations.”

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According to Cain, DHS estimates indicate that nearly 2 million people have voluntarily left the country since January of last year.

“DHS says nearly 2 million people have self deported since January of last year,” he said.

Cain said the drop in net migration has raised questions about whether the change carries tangible benefits for Americans, arguing that available data points to gains in public safety.

“So with this drastic drop, what are the benefits? Are there benefits to Americans? Yes, let’s start with security,” Cain said.

He cited DHS arrest data to support his argument.

“DHS says 70% of ICE arrests have criminal histories in the United States, so that means our streets are safer,” Cain said.

Cain also pointed to a decline in overdose deaths tied to synthetic opioids, which he said has coincided with increased border enforcement and immigration control.

“Here’s a specific example, one you heard about in the news for quite some time, and now again, it’s quiet. Fentanyl,” Cain said.

“Why? Drug over death? Overdose deaths from synthetic opioids, which we know come from China and Mexico, have dropped from almost 80,000 to below 50,000 in the past year and a half.”

In addition to security and public health impacts, Cain said economic data shows gains for American workers during the same period.

“There are also economic benefits to the changes in migration,” he said.

“Workers are getting a boost.”

Cain cited employment figures showing stronger job growth among native-born Americans compared to foreign workers.

“Last year, there were job gains of 2 million for native born American workers,” he said.

“For foreign workers, the number is 383,000.”

Cain framed the shift as a significant development with implications beyond immigration policy alone, suggesting it reflects broader changes affecting public safety, labor markets, and border enforcement outcomes.

“So what are the other benefits that Americans expect? Can expect going forward when it comes to this drop,” Cain said.

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