New polling data highlighted by CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten suggests Democrats may not be performing at the levels historically associated with major midterm election waves, despite holding an advantage in generic congressional ballot polling, as reported by Red State.

During a segment aired Monday, Enten reviewed several recent surveys and compared current Democratic margins with those recorded before previous election cycles that resulted in significant gains for the party out of power.

Historically, the party not controlling the White House has often enjoyed strong polling advantages heading into midterm elections.

Democrats currently hold a lead in several generic congressional ballot surveys. Still, Enten argued that the size of that lead may be less impressive when measured against previous wave-election benchmarks.

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According to Enten, recent polling from Ipsos, Marquette University Law School, and NBC News showed Democrats leading Republicans on the generic ballot, but by narrower margins than in past election cycles.

He noted that Democrats were “shy of their generic ballot benchmark in past wave years.”

Enten pointed to NBC News polling showing Democrats ahead by five percentage points in 2026. He compared that figure to the party's position in 2018 and 2006, when Democrats held significantly larger advantages at similar points in the election cycle.

According to the analysis, the five-point lead recorded in the NBC poll is roughly half of the Democratic advantage seen in 2018 and less than half of the margin the party held in 2006.

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Enten also noted that redistricting remains a factor that could influence the outcome of House races across the country.

Based on his calculations, Democrats may need a lead of approximately three to four points nationally to have a realistic path toward regaining control of the House of Representatives.

However, he observed that the average Democratic advantage across the Ipsos, Marquette University Law School, and NBC News polls currently stands at three points.

As a result, Enten suggested the numbers indicate a competitive environment rather than a guaranteed Democratic victory.

“Far from a guarantee,” Enten said.

The discussion also included political forecasting models. According to the segment, the Kalshi prediction market continued to favor Republicans in the battle for House control while also giving Republicans an advantage in the race for the Senate.

The polling analysis comes as both parties continue preparing for the 2026 midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress during the second half of President Donald Trump's current term.

Control of the House remains a key political objective for Democrats, who hope to regain a congressional check on the Trump administration. Republicans, meanwhile, are seeking to defend their majority and expand their position in both chambers.

Election analysts have cautioned that polling conducted more than a year before Election Day can change significantly as campaigns develop, candidates emerge, fundraising intensifies, and national issues evolve.

Still, Enten's review of the available data focused on one central point: while Democrats currently hold an advantage in generic ballot polling, the margins are smaller than those seen during previous election cycles that produced major congressional gains for the party out of power.

With more than a year remaining before voters cast ballots in the 2026 midterm elections, both parties will continue watching polling trends closely as they shape campaign strategies and target competitive districts across the country.

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