Mark Halperin is cautioning against assumptions about which party will control Congress after the midterm elections, arguing that both the Senate and House remain difficult to predict as campaigns enter a period of increasingly aggressive spending and advertising.

“Don't count on the Democrats winning the Senate. Don't count on it,” Halperin said.

“The math is still very daunting.”

Halperin said the political environment would have to move substantially toward Democrats before races such as the Senate contest in Kansas become central to the fight for control.

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He pointed to the vice president campaigning in Kansas as evidence Republicans want to prevent the race from becoming a late-season problem.

“Unless there's a blue wave, if there's a tsunami, then Kansas is in play,” Halperin said.

“Why is the Vice President of the United States campaigning in Kansas on Monday? Because they want to lock that race down. They don't want Dr. Marshall to have to defend his seat for the last two months.”

Halperin said forcing Republicans to devote additional attention to Kansas would carry symbolic consequences for the party.

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“That'd be symbolically bad for them,” he said.

His broader argument was that neither chamber should be treated as settled.

Halperin said Democrats face significant obstacles in the Senate without a major shift in the national environment, while some political observers are also questioning assumptions about the House.

“But my point is, if it's not a blue tsunami, the Senate's not a sure thing, and a surprising number of people, including Hyma Moore, Democrat on the morning meeting, are now saying what the Speaker's been saying: the House is not a sure thing, ladies and gentlemen,” Halperin said.

Halperin pointed to James Blair’s public comments as one indication that Republicans believe they can maintain control of the House, although he acknowledged that political confidence can include an element of bravado.

“If you read as I do, assiduously, the Twitter feed of James Blair, and if you read it as I do, as a combination of Harry Potter Book 3, The Talmud, and the Rosetta Stone, you will see a man who believes he's going to keep the House,” Halperin said.

“Although there's some bravado involved.”

Halperin said the complexity of the political environment has made this midterm particularly challenging to assess.

“But I'm telling you, I'll say it, I'll continue to say it: this is the most difficult to decipher midterm I have ever covered,” Halperin said.

Campaign spending is one of the major factors Halperin said he is watching before drawing conclusions.

He specifically raised the possibility of a massive financial advantage being deployed through negative advertising during the closing weeks.

“And I'll continue to say, until I see James Blair spend a billion-dollar advantage, not a billion dollars, a billion-dollar advantage, on negative ads for the next month, I'm not taking any position about how this thing's going to end,” Halperin said.

He also focused on the experience level of Democratic candidates competing in closely watched House and Senate races.

Halperin said some are first-time candidates, while others have previously lost races or have not competed at the level they now face.

“Many of them, not all, not not North Carolina and Ohio Senate, many of them are not experienced,” Halperin said.

“Some of them are first-time candidates, some of them have run before and lost, and some of them have never played at this level.”

Halperin specifically named Troy Jackson, Abdul El-Sayed and James Talarico while discussing how those candidates could respond to increasingly aggressive campaigning.

“But I'm telling you: Jackson, El-Sayed, Talarico, these are folks, they're not used to this, and they're running against professional killers,” Halperin said.

He devoted particular attention to Jackson and the negative advertising surrounding his race, arguing that Jackson’s public discussion of those attacks suggests they are affecting him.

“Mr. Jackson, it's about to get much more nasty,” Halperin said.

Halperin predicted the advertising would become increasingly negative during the final stretch and said Jackson would encounter those messages not only through television and the internet but also through conversations with people around him.

“If you think that Troy Jackson, as I do, that these negative ads are in his head, his head's going to spin around like Linda Blair in The Exorcist in the next three weeks, because these ads are going to get more more not only more negative,” Halperin said.

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