WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
  • Democrat margins among New York Jewish voters have fallen by more than 35 points since 2022, according to CNN analyst Harry Enten.
  • Republican Bruce Blakeman led Gov. Kathy Hochul 46% to 43% among Jewish voters in a September Siena University poll.
  • Zohran Mamdani’s net favorability among Jewish voters stood at minus 23, roughly 31 points below his standing statewide.
  • Enten said shifting Jewish voters could help Republican Rep. Mike Lawler retain New York’s 17th Congressional District.

Republicans are polling at historically strong levels among Jewish voters in New York as Democrat margins with the influential voting bloc collapse, according to CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten. Surveys cited by Enten show Democrat margins have fallen by more than 35 points since 2022.

Enten presented the numbers Wednesday during an appearance with CNN anchor John Berman. He also posted the figures on X, highlighting significant movement toward Republicans in both the New York governor’s race and the contest for the U.S. House.

New York has a larger Jewish share of the electorate than any other state, Enten said. That makes the sharp shift especially troublesome for Democrats accustomed to holding commanding margins among those voters.

In the governor’s race, the current Democrat margin among Jewish voters stands at 13 points. That is a staggering retreat from the 51-point advantage held by Gov. Kathy Hochul in 2022 and the 55-point edge posted by Andrew Cuomo in 2018.

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“We’re talking about a swing here … of 38 points downward towards the Republicans when it comes to Jewish voters,” Enten said.

The House generic ballot tells nearly the same story. Democrats held a 49-point lead among Jewish voters in 2022, but that margin has narrowed to only 13 points this year.

“Their lead is absolutely tumbled into the Hudson River among Jewish voters,” the CNN analyst said.

Berman asked Enten about the role played by Democratic Socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Enten pointed to Mamdani’s positions on Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying those positions do not align with many Jewish New Yorkers.

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Mamdani’s net favorability among Jewish voters stands at minus 23, according to Enten. That result is roughly 31 points below the mayor’s standing with the overall New York electorate, another glaring warning sign for Democrats.

A September Siena University poll documented the same political movement. Republican Bruce Blakeman led Hochul 46% to 43% among Jewish voters in the governor’s race, despite Hochul maintaining a nine-point lead across the state.

Jewish voters also favored Blakeman over Hochul on dealing with “undocumented immigrants.” Blakeman held a 48% to 43% advantage on that issue, while Jewish voters viewed Mamdani unfavorably by a 64% to 33% margin.

The polling came after Mamdani’s election as New York City mayor in November. Exit polls showed Mamdani winning about one third of the city’s Jewish vote, while Cuomo, running as an independent, received roughly 63%.

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Enten also turned to New York’s 17th Congressional District, which is represented by Republican Rep. Mike Lawler. Kamala Harris carried the district in 2024 by less than a percentage point, leaving Lawler in a politically competitive seat.

The prediction market Kalshi gave Lawler a 39% chance of retaining the heavily Jewish district, Enten noted. He said that figure could rise if Jewish voters ultimately move in the direction indicated by the governor’s race and House polling.

“They may just save Mike Lawler’s seat in Congress for him,” Enten said.

The figures give Democrats multiple reasons for concern across New York. Hochul’s margin among Jewish voters has plunged from its 2022 level, the party’s House ballot advantage has suffered a similar collapse, and Mamdani remains deeply unpopular with the same group.

Republicans, meanwhile, are recording unusually strong numbers among Jewish voters in a state where their rivals previously enjoyed overwhelming advantages. If the polling movement carries into congressional voting, Enten’s analysis suggests it could become decisive in Lawler’s closely watched district.

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