WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
- Sen. Steve Daines warns that the 2026 midterms could resemble the GOP’s disastrous 2006 election cycle.
- Trump’s job approval stands at 26%, while 69% say the Iran war has not been worth fighting.
- Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 75% chance of winning the House and a 54% chance of taking the Senate.
- Daines remains optimistic about Republican Senate candidates Susan Collins and Roger Marshall despite broader warning signs.
Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) is warning that Republicans could suffer a punishing defeat in this year’s midterm elections. He sees troubling similarities to 2006, when the GOP lost control of both the House and Senate during former President George W. Bush’s second midterm elections.
Daines led the Senate Republican campaign arm during the last election cycle. His warning centers on two conditions that hurt Republicans 20 years ago and are again creating political headaches: an unpopular war and high gas prices.
“There arguably could be some similarities between the ’06 cycle and the 2026 cycle. Think about the condition of the country back in ’06. An unpopular war, 6 in 10 Americans opposed the Iraq War at that point. Gas prices had doubled. Does it sound familiar? We ended up losing six seats,” Daines said at the Grand Strategy Summit in Washington.
“That was a night, by the way, we lost some redder states,” he added. The comment highlighted how a rough national environment can reach Republican candidates even in territory that might otherwise appear favorable.
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Republicans began the 2006 election cycle with a Senate majority of five seats, and most political handicappers initially projected that they would retain control. Instead, voter anger over the Iraq War, high gas prices and scandals in Washington helped cost the party six Senate seats.
Several of those losses came in states that leaned Republican. Sen. Mike DeWine (R) lost to Democrat Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Sen. Conrad Burns (R) lost to Democrat Jon Tester in Montana, and Sen. Jim Talent (R) lost to Democrat Claire McCaskill in Missouri.
Daines argued that today’s political landscape carries an uncomfortable echo. “Today 6 in 10 Americans oppose the Iran war. Gas prices — enough said on gas prices. There’s an argument, if you look at history, that 2026 feels a lot like 2006,” he said.
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The damage in 2006 was not limited to the Senate. Democrats gained 32 House seats, handing the Speaker’s gavel to Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), while former Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) became Senate majority leader in 2007.
President Trump acknowledged Thursday that “it’s possible” the Iran war could cost Republicans congressional seats this November. Polling cited in the report offers little comfort to GOP candidates hoping the political weather clears before voters head to the polls.
Trump posted a 26% job approval rating in an Associated Press/NORC Center for Public Affairs survey of 2,140 U.S. adults conducted from Sept. 24 to Sept. 28. The survey found that 69% of Americans believe the war with Iran has not been worth fighting, while only 28% approve of Trump’s handling of the conflict.
Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 75% chance of capturing the House in November. It also puts their chance of winning the Senate at 54%, raising the possibility that Republicans could lose both chambers.
Daines did not offer only warnings of an election night wipeout. The Montana senator also pointed to developments he considers favorable for Republican candidates, even as he acknowledged the usual danger facing a president’s party during a second midterm.
“Second midterms are tough,” Daines said, referring to former Presidents George W. Bush and Obama losing party control of the Senate during the midterm elections of their respective second terms. Still, he predicted Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) would defeat progressive challenger Troy Jackson in Maine.
Daines also predicted that Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) would survive a tougher Democratic challenge in Kansas. “If you just watched in the last 48 hours, there’s kind of this buzz in the media that suddenly some of these polls are tightening up,” he said. “There’s just so much truly fake poll information out there to generate public opinion.”
As evidence for skepticism about polling, Daines noted that Collins defeated Sara Gideon in the 2020 Maine Senate contest by 9 percentage points. Polls before election day had shown Gideon comfortably leading the race.
Daines acknowledged that “Kansas has given us some heartburn,” but predicted that “Roger will bring Kansas home.” Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932.
The Montana senator also said polling shows the Alaska Senate contest between Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) and former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) is “tightening up.” His assessment leaves Republicans with bright spots, but also a blunt warning that 2026 could revive the same political forces that devastated the party in 2006.
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