U.S. intelligence has warned that Iranian efforts to kill Americans overseas have reached “advanced stages,” a chilling assessment that comes as Washington reduces diplomatic staffing across the Middle East and considers the possibility of renewed military strikes against Tehran.

The warning appeared in an unclassified October 23 memorandum from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Axios obtained and published the document, reporting that the intelligence helped drive the diplomatic drawdowns.

“Through various channels, we have received intelligence that Iran has substantially increased efforts to target U.S. personnel,” Clayton wrote. “The lethal plotting efforts by the Iranians against U.S. citizens have reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and certain other countries.”

The memorandum also copied CIA Director John Ratcliffe. It warned that intelligence concerning the Iranian threats was relevant to more State Department personnel than those who were currently cleared to receive the sensitive information.

Scoop: U.S. intelligence finds Iran has "substantially increased" its efforts to target American diplomats & officials in the Middle East and beyond, with lethal plots reaching "advanced stages," per memo to Secretary of State Rubio. My story on @axios https://t.co/JpDxTvWdpT https://t.co/OHJRSIOnJd

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) October 24, 2026

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Clayton said the material had already been provided to appropriately cleared senior State Department officials. He also offered to downgrade as much of the intelligence as possible so Rubio could distribute the information more widely.

The document did not identify particular targets or reveal the nature of the alleged plots. It also did not name the countries outside the Middle East where American citizens or personnel could be at risk.

U.S. officials separately confirmed the memorandum’s authenticity to multiple news organizations, including CNN, which also obtained a copy. The warning adds a grim layer to staffing decisions already unfolding at American diplomatic facilities across the region.

A U.S. official told Al Arabiya English Washington correspondent Joseph Haboush that Iranian plots targeting American officials were informing those adjustments. Threats of attacks by the Houthis, who are backed by Iran, were also part of the security calculation.

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Earlier this week, Washington ordered nonessential personnel and family members to leave its embassy in Riyadh and its consulates in Jeddah and Dhahran. The order followed intensified Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia.

CNN first reported Friday that staffing changes were taking place at several diplomatic posts, including facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. American officials were weighing the possibility of a broader regional confrontation as those reductions moved forward.

On Friday, the State Department also ordered staffing reductions at U.S. embassies in the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, Qatar and Jordan, according to a U.S. official cited in the report.

“We decided that due to the threat of Houthi attacks and Iranian terror plots, we need to reduce our footprint and keep only essential staff,” the official said. The explanation was blunt, matching the seriousness of the intelligence circulating inside the government.

The security measures follow increasingly explicit threats from Iran against American forces and military installations throughout the region. On Thursday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened to expand the conflict to U.S. military bases if American forces continued escorting vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.

“The US military must know that if this trend continues, the conflict will extend to its bases in the region,” the IRGC warned. Tehran’s message left little room for diplomatic word games as American officials assessed the danger.

Reuters reported Friday that two senior Iranian security officials had described contingency plans for broader retaliation if Washington or Israel resumed strikes. Those plans included possible attacks against undersea communications cables and military installations.

“If Iran is attacked, there will be no more red lines… from undersea cables to military bases, including covert ones,” one official warned. The threat broadened the potential scope of retaliation beyond conventional military targets.

President Donald Trump, meanwhile, has escalated warnings that the United States could again take military action against Iran. He threatened Friday to launch another round of Operation Epic Fury unless Tehran reaches an agreement with Washington.

“We may do another little Epic Fury, or they’ll agree,” Trump told supporters at a campaign rally in Fort Myers, Florida. “If they’re smart, they’ll just say, ‘Let’s get down to business.’ But, you know, I doubt they’ll do that because perhaps they’re not smart,” he added.

Reuters, citing officials: Iran has drawn up detailed plans to target undersea cables in the Gulf in case of renewed war

Two senior Iranian security officials told Reuters that Tehran has drawn up detailed plans to target undersea communications cables in the Gulf region in the event of a renewed attack on Iran by the United States and Israel. Their statements followed warnings from Iranian officials indicating that undersea communications cables in the region could become targets in any renewed conflict should diplomatic efforts with Washington collapse. The two Iranian security officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, provided brief details, without specifying how or where Tehran might carry out such attacks. However, one of them indicated that Iran would seek to prevent repairs after any attack in order to prolong the disruption of communications, including internet services. One of the officials said: "If Iran is attacked, there will be no red lines; this will include everything from undersea cables to military bases, including secret ones." The official warned Washington against "playing with fire," emphasizing that Iran has the full capability to access and easily destroy undersea cables. — Open Source Intel (@Osint613) October 23, 2026

Multiple outlets have reported in recent days that the Trump administration is considering renewed military strikes against Iran, potentially after the November midterm elections. Possible targets include Iran’s missile and drone capabilities, energy infrastructure, and nuclear facilities.

No decision to launch another operation has been announced. For now, Washington is reducing its diplomatic footprint while intelligence officials warn that Iranian plotting against Americans has moved well beyond the early stages.

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