Rep. Jim Jordan has emerged as the commanding betting favorite to lead House Republicans after the party’s midterm losses, opening a substantial advantage over House Majority Leader Steve Scalise as lawmakers prepare to select their next leader.

The Ohio Republican held a 72.3% chance of becoming House minority leader in the 120th Congress on prediction market Kalshi shortly after noon Tuesday. Scalise stood at 21% in the same snapshot, taken at 12:09 p.m.

The contest follows Speaker Mike Johnson’s announcement that he would not seek to lead House Republicans in the next Congress. His decision cleared the way for another leadership showdown between Jordan and Scalise.

The Republican vote for US House Minority Leader is STARTING NOW

OPTIONS: Jim Jordan Steve Scalise — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 10, 2026

Republicans were scheduled to choose their leader Tuesday through a secret ballot. The winner will take control of the House Republican conference when Democrats assume control of the chamber in January.

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While the market showed Jordan with a lopsided advantage, traders will not determine the final result. Republican lawmakers will make the choice behind closed doors, leaving the conference itself to settle the race.

Jordan’s position on Kalshi strengthened considerably during the past month. The market chart placed his chances below 30% in mid October before showing a sharp climb around the election.

Nearly $196,000 had been traded across the prediction market. The activity reflected traders’ expectations about which Republican would prevail as the conference prepares for its return to the minority.

Jordan, the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, has presented his record of battling Democrats and defending President Donald Trump as a central qualification. He argues that experience will be valuable as Republicans confront a Democratic House majority.

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In a letter announcing his candidacy, Jordan warned that Democrats would begin investigations across the administration. He called for Republicans to develop a coordinated strategy for responding to those efforts in the next Congress.

Jordan also argued that Republicans must restore confidence among voters by offering clear policy alternatives. His pitch combines preparations for conflict with Democrats and an effort to rebuild support following the party’s election defeat.

Supporters of the Ohio Republican have called for a leadership change after the midterm result. That argument places additional scrutiny on Scalise because he currently serves as the No. 2 House Republican.

JUST NOW: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna just walked out and said Republicans need to STOP trying to elect leadership who oversaw midterm losses — SHE SUPPORTS JIM JORDAN for Minority Leader

"I think that it would have gone a heck of a lot different if we were able to actually fight on some of these issues!" She just NAMED: - Banning congressional stock trading, after leadership sent down a "watered" version - Capping federal student loan interest at 2.5%, which she says Trump supports and has broad bipartisan support - Taking on glyphosate, where she says leadership "fought me on that too" - Merging the SAVE America Act legislation, which she says members had to shut down the House to force STEVE SCALISE is Jordan's opponent. Whoever wins needs to be ready to work hard and fight hard for a 2028 COMEBACK with Americans put first. — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 10, 2026

Scalise, a Louisiana Republican, has emphasized his experience bringing the conference together. He has also focused his campaign on winning back the House majority after Republicans move into the minority in January.

His case centers on preparing House Republicans for legislative fights and oversight battles while rebuilding the party’s electoral strength. That approach puts his leadership experience against Jordan’s emphasis on confronting Democrats and defending Trump.

The race renews a rivalry that surfaced during the chaotic 2023 contest to replace ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Both Jordan and Scalise sought the Republican nomination during that leadership struggle, but neither ultimately secured the speakership.

JORDAN VS. SCALISE: House Republicans are casting secret ballots for minority leader within the hour.

Steve Scalise is running on experience. Jim Jordan is running as the change candidate and the fighter who will take on the far-left Democrat agenda. Republicans just lost the House. Running it back with the same leadership isn't the answer. The GOP needs new leadership... BIGLY. — Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) November 10, 2026

Scalise initially defeated Jordan for the Republican nomination in 2023. He withdrew, however, before facing a vote on the House floor.

Jordan later became the Republican nominee but failed to win the speakership across three floor ballots. House Republicans eventually united behind Johnson, ending that contest without either current contender taking the top position.

Now Jordan and Scalise are again competing for the conference’s highest leadership job, this time with Republicans preparing to surrender control of the chamber. The winner will be responsible for guiding the conference against the incoming Democratic majority.

That leader will also face the challenge of positioning Republicans to reclaim the House in 2028. Jordan entered Tuesday with the clear prediction market advantage, but the decisive votes remained in the hands of Republican lawmakers meeting in secret.

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