NASA’s celebrated Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory is rapidly slipping from its once stable orbit and is expected to burn up in Earth’s atmosphere just before the 22nd anniversary of its launch. The telescope will soon have to halt science observations as its descent accelerates.

Named after fast flying birds, Swift was built to pivot quickly toward brief cosmic events such as flaring black holes. Its original mission focused on gamma-ray bursts, the universe’s most powerful explosions, but scientists also used it to observe other cosmic flashes, asteroids and comets.

The observatory weighs 3,200 pounds, or 1,452 kilograms, and is currently about 200 miles, or 325 kilometers, above Earth. NASA engineers estimate operations will become difficult once Swift falls below 185 miles, or 300 kilometers, in early to mid October.

Swift is then expected to drop from orbit and burn up during its plunge through the atmosphere. Some parts of the spacecraft could survive the fiery reentry, although LeoLabs said the likelihood of serious damage or injury is very small.

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“While it’s possible some hardware from the Swift spacecraft may survive re-entry due to its size, the probability of debris causing significant property damage or physical harm to anyone is very small,” LeoLabs said in a statement shared with CNN. “More likely, as is the case with most debris that survives re-entry, it will fall into the ocean or on land that’s uninhabited.”

Image Credit: NASA

NASA did not respond to a request for comment about potential risks from Swift’s reentry. Scientists had hoped a rapidly developed satellite called LINK could grapple the telescope and lift it into a stable orbit.

Katalyst Space Technologies, a company based in Arizona, developed, built and launched LINK in nine months. The rescue effort failed a few weeks after LINK launched in early July because the satellite spun out of control in space.

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“From the beginning, this was a high-risk, high-reward mission,” said Shawn Domagal-Goldman, Astrophysics Division director at NASA, in a statement. “Without intervention, Swift was going to re-enter the atmosphere by year’s end.”

Katalyst continued pursuing a rendezvous with Swift in mid August, but the operation became a demonstration rather than a rescue because LINK was still experiencing orientation problems. Engineers used the satellite’s thrusters to slow its unexpected spin and uploaded new flight software.

The maneuver successfully reoriented LINK, but it also depleted the satellite’s propellant. Katalyst and NASA determined the spacecraft no longer carried enough fuel to safely complete the planned capture and orbit raising portion of the mission.

LINK came within 7.5 to 9 miles, or 12 to 15 kilometers, of Swift during the first week of September. The approach allowed it to practice techniques that could be used by future servicing missions, particularly with spacecraft like Swift that were not designed for servicing in space.

The satellite also deployed the three robotic arms originally intended to capture Swift and fired its three electric propulsion thrusters. LINK operated in space for 85 days before reentering Earth’s atmosphere on September 25, according to Katalyst.

“While we did not accomplish every objective we set out to achieve, in less than a year we went from mission concept to launching and operating the first commercial space robot,” said Ghonhee Lee, CEO of Katalyst Space. “This is a foundation we can build on.”

Image Credit: NASA

Katalyst plans to apply data and lessons from LINK to its next generation of spacecraft, which could service existing missions in space. NASA and Katalyst both said the modified operation provided useful experience for future space activities.

Swift has operated as an astrophysics multitool in low Earth orbit since launching in November 2004, and no established observational replacement is waiting to take over. Mission scientists have been gradually turning its instruments back on to collect data until operations become impossible.

Those instruments had been shut off for months to reduce power consumption and slow Swift’s sinking orbit. Restoring them is accelerating the observatory’s decline, even as researchers try to secure final observations before the mission ends.

Atmospheric drag had already been pulling Swift downward, but increased solar activity over the past couple of years magnified the effect. Intense flares and coronal mass ejections expanded Earth’s atmosphere as the sun reached the peak of its 11 year cycle in 2024, increasing drag on the observatory.

S. Bradley Cenko, Swift’s principal investigator at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, said namesake Neil Gehrels would have celebrated the rescue effort as part of Swift’s legacy. The attempt allowed NASA to try something new and daring, even though success was never guaranteed.

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