The 2026 midterm campaign is in its final weeks, with some voices predicting a blue wave. Yet the picture described by prominent pollsters and political observers is far less comfortable for Democrats, especially in Michigan’s Senate contest.

The expectation of a repeat of 2018 is being openly challenged. According to the assessment presented, a flip of more than 25 seats is not in the cards, and the sweeping electoral environment Democrats want may simply not exist.

Some leading pollsters are also skeptical of the latest batch of surveys. Frank Luntz, who acknowledged getting the 2016 election wrong, has said Trump supporters do not respond to pollsters, raising another problem for anyone treating current polling as gospel.

Now New York Times reporter and Michigan native Jeremy Peters is drawing attention to a potentially consequential shift in Detroit’s suburbs. Jewish Democrats voting Republican, something already viewed as possible, is reportedly becoming a real phenomenon there.

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These are not voters casually bouncing between parties from election to election. According to Peters, lifelong Jewish Democrats are preparing to vote Republican for the first time, and his reaction was blunt: “That's a big deal!”

Peters said it is “really quite striking” that Democrats are sufficiently worried about El-Sayed to support Trump-aligned former Rep. Mike Rogers. That movement could matter greatly in a race where even a relatively small shift may determine the outcome.

Former Clinton pollster Mark Penn offered a straightforward calculation involving supporters of Haley Stevens. Penn said that if 5% of Stevens supporters flip, Rogers will likely win the Michigan Senate race.

Stevens ran against El-Sayed in the Democrat primary, making the behavior of her supporters particularly important. If some of those voters refuse to rally behind El-Sayed, the Democrats’ coalition could prove shakier than headline polling suggests.

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Peters also raised concern that polling is disproportionately sampling voters with college educations, a group that makes up El-Sayed’s base. That concern centers on whether surveys are capturing an electorate that is more favorable to El-Sayed than the voters who will actually decide the race.

Another challenge involves what Democrat voters are willing to admit to pollsters. Peters reported that some hesitate to say they plan to vote Republican for the first time, while others may be reluctant to disclose that they intend to split their tickets.

El-Sayed’s primary result adds another warning sign for Democrats leaning heavily on polling. He barely won the primary even though surveys had projected that he would score a landslide victory.

Polling has also repeatedly underestimated Trump voters, according to the account Peters provided. That familiar problem hangs over a contest involving Rogers, whose alignment with Trump is central to the concern Peters described among Democrats.

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Peters asserted numerous Democrats — particularly Jews — plan to vote Republican for the first time. "That's a big deal!" he said. Peters argued it's "really quite striking" how Democrats are so worried about El-Sayed that they'll vote for Trump-aligned Mike Rogers. He added there is significant fear that polling is disproportionately sampling voters with college educations who make up El-Sayed's base. Moreover, Peters reported Democrat voters hesitate to tell pollsters they plan to vote Republican for the first time. El-Sayed also barely won his primary — despite polling projecting a landslide victory. Furthermore, polling has repeatedly underestimated Trump voters. El-Sayed supposedly maintains a slight lead over Rogers, according to the RealClearPolling average. So even a small polling miss could mean El-Sayed loses to Rogers. It appears there's a significant chance of that happening. — Jason Cohen (@JasonJournoDC) October 20, 2026

Steve Kornacki delivered a similar assessment while discussing the latest Senate surveys on NBC. He said the Democratic advantages reflected in those polls are tenuous at best, hardly the foundation for confident blue wave predictions.

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Kornacki noted Democrat leads in key Senate races are "tenuous" — and that polling frequently underestimates Trump voters. He asserted Republicans now confidently view polls where Democrats have slight leads as likely GOP victories. Kornacki gave specific examples, such as Ohio and Iowa. Remember the infamous Ann Selzer Iowa 2024 poll? Kornacki particularly highlighted the Kansas Senate race in 2020. He said the Democrat was polling well — but Republican Roger Marshall ultimately smoked her in a landslide. Marshall is now supposedly polling extremely tightly against his Democrat opponent once again. Kornacki also pointed out that even blue states like Michigan and Minnesota appear remarkably close in polling. He reminded viewers that Abdul El-Sayed barely won his primary after polling projected a huge victory. Due to the tightness of these Senate races, underestimating Republican turnout by even a small margin could make all the difference. Frank Luntz also recently warned Trump voters "don't respond" to pollster phone calls and asserted he was "skeptical" that polls were accurate. Nobody is buying the polls anymore. Democrats could be in for a rude awakening in 2 weeks. — Jason Cohen (@JasonJournoDC) October 20, 2026

The potential polling error is not trivial when control of Congress is at stake. If surveys once again underestimate the Trump vote by 2 to 3 points, as they have before, Republicans could retain congressional control.

Taken together, the concerns involve Jewish Democrats crossing party lines, Stevens supporters potentially defecting, college-educated voters being oversampled, and Democrat ticket splitters withholding their plans from pollsters. None of that offers much comfort to Democrats counting on the published numbers.

Katty Kay of Morning Joe notices the lack of black support at 'arrogant' Abdul El Sayed events:

"These audiences, which were almost entirely white. I actually don't think I saw a black person in either of the audiences that I went to." "He comes across as a little smug, a little arrogant, a little too cool for school." If the media was covering for my family's terrorist past, I would be arrogant too. — Eric Abbenante (@EricAbbenante) October 20, 2026

The Michigan race therefore carries a warning that reaches beyond one Senate contest. Democrats may see leads in current surveys, but Peters and Kornacki are both highlighting reasons those advantages could be far less secure once voters cast their ballots.

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